One event.
Countless impacts.
The Butterfly Effect Engine transforms verified world events into evidence-based market intelligence — with transparent, accountable forecasting you can actually trust.
From a single signal to a market-moving chain.
Every intelligence card carries a Butterfly Path™ — the visible chain linking a verified event to its downstream market consequences.
Detect
AI ingests and cross-verifies world events across 25 specialized intelligence streams in real time.
Analyze
Map cascade effects from first-order shocks to third-order economic ripples.
Forecast
Direction, probability, and magnitude — each scored with a transparent confidence level.
Act
Portfolio alerts, AI recommendations, and paper trading turn intelligence into action.
Most tools show you the news. We show you the edge.
The Butterfly Effect Engine isn't a news feed bolted onto a chart. It's a purpose-built intelligence terminal that holds itself accountable to reality.
Accountable by design
Every forecast is logged with a direction, probability, and time horizon — then scored against the actual outcome. Public Brier scores. No retroactive edits, no hidden track records.
The Butterfly Path™
Each intelligence card traces the visible cascade from a first-order shock to third-order economic ripples — so you see the whole chain, not just the headline.
Confidence-scored signals
Every event carries a 0–100 confidence score, so you can tune alert thresholds and act only on your highest-conviction signals instead of drowning in noise.
25 specialized ingest streams
Web-grounded, real-time discovery across geopolitics, macro, critical materials, cyber outages, shipping chokepoints, sovereign debt, and more — each with its own cadence.
Portfolio exposure matching
Alerts fire only when an event intersects your actual holdings — by ticker, sector, and region — not generic market chatter you can't act on.
From intelligence to action
AI trade recommendations, conviction-tiered paper trading, and cross-asset correlation alerts turn raw events into sized, testable positions.
25 specialized streams. One coherent picture.
Every stream runs its own high-cadence, web-grounded discovery pipeline and feeds the same cross-verifying, cascade-mapping engine — so a port strike, a sovereign default, and a chip-fab earthquake all land in one place.
- GeopoliticalSanctions, conflict, elections, diplomacy
- MacroeconomicGDP, inflation, employment, central-bank data
- Trade & TariffsTariff regimes, trade wars, export controls
- Currency & FXFX moves, dollar strength, currency interventions
- Fixed Income & RatesYields, spreads, rate expectations
- Regulatory & PolicyRulemaking, antitrust, sector regulation
- Emergency Central BankUnscheduled rate moves, liquidity injections
- Sovereign DebtDefault risk, ratings, debt crises
- EnergyOil, gas, OPEC, power markets
- CommodityMetals, grains, softs, bulk commodities
- Critical MaterialsBattery metals, rare earths, semiconductors
- AgricultureCrops, harvests, food supply, fertilizers
- Weather & ClimateStorms, droughts, floods, climate disruption
- Seismic EventsEarthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity
- Industrial DisastersPlant explosions, fires, facility outages
- Shipping ChokepointsSuez, Hormuz, Panama, Red Sea, Malacca
- CorporateEarnings, M&A, guidance, bankruptcies
- People & LeadershipExecutive changes, succession, personnel risk
- Labor & StrikesStrikes, walkouts, labor negotiations
- TechnologyAI, semis, platform disruption, product cycles
- CryptocurrencyCrypto flows, exchange risk, token events
- Cyber & IT OutagesRansomware, zero-days, cloud & exchange outages
- Market InterdependenceCross-asset linkages and contagion paths
- Supply ChainLogistics, bottlenecks, multi-tier disruption
- Public HealthOutbreaks, health emergencies, pharma risk
One platform. The full intelligence loop.
From the first verified signal to an actionable, accountable trade — every step lives inside the Butterfly Effect Engine.
Event Intelligence Feed
Verified global events across 18 streams — with severity, verification level, and geographic context in real time.
Butterfly Path™ Analysis
First, second, and third-order economic cascade effects visualized as a transparent, traceable chain.
Portfolio Intelligence
Map your holdings against affected markets for instant exposure detection and targeted alerts.
AI Trade Recommendations
Evidence-based Buy / Sell / Hold / Hedge signals with conviction scores and time horizons.
Forecast Accountability
Every forecast is tracked and scored for accuracy over 6 time horizons — no black boxes.
Advanced Analytics
Portfolio heat maps, ETF decomposition, supply-chain visualization, and cross-market correlations.
Knowledge Graph
Explore hidden dependencies between events, assets, sectors, and critical materials.
Backtesting Lab
Validate strategies against historical analogs and measured real-world outcomes.
Research Assistant
Ask questions in plain English and receive grounded, sourced market briefings.
Real-time Alerts
In-app, email, Slack, and Microsoft Teams delivery with severity and category filtering.
Developer API
A data API for embedding event-driven intelligence into your own systems and workflows.
Model Performance
Transparent success-rate dashboards for forecasts and recommendations over time.
Accountability, not alchemy.
Every forecast is logged with a direction, probability, and time horizon — then measured against the actual outcome. You see the hit rate, the misses, and the Brier score. No hidden track records, no retroactive edits.
See the public track recordTrusted by investors & analysts.
Finally, event-driven intel that connects the dots
The Butterfly Effect Engine does what no other tool I've tried does: it traces how a single geopolitical or supply-chain event cascades through markets I actually hold. The cascade analysis and affected-assets mapping have changed how I run my weekly research. Instead of reacting to headlines, I'm positioning before the second-order move.
The forecast accountability is a game-changer
Most platforms make predictions and quietly move on. Here every forecast gets scored against the actual outcome. Seeing the model's hit rate by category — and that probabilities are calibrated against that track record — gives me real confidence in the signals rather than vibes.
Caught a move my news feed missed entirely
An energy logistics disruption showed up as a High severity event with actionable instruments listed days before it hit the mainstream wires. I paper-traded the recommendation first, watched it play out, then sized a real position. The paper-trade-first workflow is exactly the discipline I needed.
Portfolio-specific alerts, not generic noise
I love that alerts are matched to my actual holdings and exposures instead of blasting every market event. The qualification thresholds mean I only get pinged when something is material and tradeable. The morning briefing has become part of my pre-market routine.
Powerful intelligence, worth the learning curve
There's a lot to absorb — butterfly scores, scenario forks, historical analogs — but once it clicks the platform is genuinely ahead of anything else. The historical analogs feature alone, surfacing what happened after similar past events, has saved me from a couple of bad trades.
Transparent, evidence-based, and genuinely useful
Every event lists its sources, verification level, and confidence score. Nothing is hand-wavy. As an analyst I appreciate that I can trace every claim back to provenance. This is what financial AI should look like — grounded, accountable, and actionable.
Plans that scale with your edge.
Higher tiers unlock fresher data, deeper analytics, and team collaboration — the Bloomberg model for event intelligence.
Free Explorer
Introduce users to the platform — build trust, drive growth.
- 5 intelligence cards / day
- Global event dashboard
- Major breaking events
- Limited historical analogs
- 1 watchlist
- Weekly market summary
Investor
Everything in Free, plus full intelligence & portfolio tools.
- Unlimited intelligence cards
- Portfolio Intelligence Watch (25 securities)
- AI trade recommendations
- Paper trading (25 positions)
- 24h / 90-day / 180-day forecasts
- Full historical analogs
Professional
Adds unlimited portfolios, advanced analytics & limited API.
- Everything in Investor
- Unlimited portfolios & watchlists
- Portfolio heat maps
- Hidden dependency analysis
- ETF decomposition
- Supply-chain visualization
Professional Plus
Real-time stream, AI research assistant & unlimited API.
- Everything in Professional
- Real-time event stream
- Butterfly Engine AI agent & scheduled briefings
- AI research assistant
- Knowledge Graph Explorer
- Cross-asset correlation alerts
Enterprise
Unlimited everything, private deployment & dedicated support.
- Everything in Professional Plus
- Unlimited everything
- Unlimited team members
- Private deployment options
- White-label API
- Single sign-on (SSO)
Building a data product? Explore the Developer API →
Start turning events into edge.
Create a free account and watch the first Butterfly Path unfold in your intelligence terminal.
